Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.800495 0.931983 1.077855 1.251636 1.453000 1.678970 1.951816
2025-01-26 0.591545 0.768421 0.986444 1.274732 1.645824 2.107435 2.725502
2025-02-02 0.502742 0.705566 0.974835 1.358001 1.888994 2.598861 3.620516
2025-02-09 0.430753 0.643924 0.944579 1.398752 2.067039 3.014199 4.459499
2025-02-16 0.371898 0.587252 0.907336 1.416545 2.205677 3.381944 5.269715
2025-02-23 0.322202 0.534391 0.864936 1.415710 2.309711 3.703592 6.043490
2025-03-02 0.280018 0.485814 0.820480 1.402257 2.387392 3.987699 6.786543
2025-03-09 0.248147 0.448860 0.788514 1.402567 2.483807 4.308013 7.621376
2025-03-16 0.213474 0.401672 0.732344 1.352691 2.486013 4.467482 8.196823
2025-03-23 0.204858 0.399747 0.754251 1.442375 2.742896 5.092462 9.661580
2025-03-30 0.179789 0.363472 0.709040 1.402407 2.756690 5.282382 10.352091
2025-04-06 0.157393 0.329178 0.662958 1.354248 2.747652 5.426400 10.968459
2025-04-13 0.138121 0.298960 0.621829 1.312281 2.748915 5.596597 11.670494
2025-04-20 0.127868 0.286094 0.613867 1.336792 2.887728 6.053869 13.007934
2025-04-27 0.124425 0.287271 0.634811 1.424068 3.167012 6.825498 15.086476
2025-05-04 0.117323 0.279306 0.635195 1.466775 3.355668 7.429324 16.878836
2025-05-11 0.109037 0.267439 0.625434 1.485421 3.493037 7.937979 18.521571
2025-05-18 0.100248 0.253120 0.608229 1.484546 3.585338 8.356577 20.008334
2025-05-25 0.091532 0.237752 0.586628 1.470448 3.644773 8.707021 21.377787
2025-06-01 0.084608 0.225885 0.571829 1.470773 3.738382 9.145946 23.007188
2025-06-08 0.075453 0.207015 0.537580 1.418504 3.696546 9.259661 23.860056
2025-06-15 0.074831 0.210559 0.559813 1.512489 4.033247 10.325596 27.203199
2025-06-22 0.067537 0.195036 0.531253 1.470605 4.015358 10.512226 28.331864